WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BAKS ban
43%38%
K28 · 3 mapsedge K28 +5%BAKS · 4 maps
AncientBAKS pick
40%71%
K28 · 1 mapedge BAKS +31%BAKS · 3 maps
InfernoK28 ban
50%63%
K28 · 0 mapsedge BAKS +13%BAKS · 4 maps
MirageK28 pick
67%50%
K28 · 2 mapsedge K28 +17%BAKS · 2 maps
NukeK28 ban
50%57%
K28 · 0 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 3 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
60%50%
K28 · 1 mapedge K28 +10%BAKS · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
K28 · 0 mapsedge BAKS +10%BAKS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK28 remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickK28 take Mirage
4. PickBAKS take Ancient
5. BanBAKS remove Dust2
6. BanK28 remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
K28 58%BAKS 42%
The model gave 58% on K28 — the map was taken by BAKS.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
K28 37%BAKS 63%
The model gave 63% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 54%
Series resultBAKS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2