ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ground Zero#139 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoGround Zero pick
38%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Ground Zero +12%Ground Zero · 4 maps
MirageKaleido pick
71%50%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Kaleido +21%Ground Zero · 4 maps
Dust2Kaleido ban
25%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Ground Zero +25%Ground Zero · 2 maps
NukeKaleido ban
50%44%
Kaleido · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +6%Ground Zero · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%43%
Kaleido · 1 mapnearly even -3%Ground Zero · 3 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
57%50%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Kaleido +7%Ground Zero · 0 maps
DefaultGround Zero ban
60%50%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge Kaleido +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Nuke
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickKaleido take Mirage
4. PickGround Zero take Inferno
5. BanGround Zero remove Default
6. BanKaleido remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (40% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Kaleido 74%Ground Zero 26%
The model gave 74% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Kaleido 23%Ground Zero 77%
The model gave 77% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 52%
Series resultKaleido 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2