ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
56%50%
Kaleido · 5 mapsedge Kaleido +6%Just Swing · 0 maps
InfernoJust Swing pick
38%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Just Swing +12%Just Swing · 0 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
57%50%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Kaleido +7%Just Swing · 0 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 0 maps
NukeKaleido ban
50%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 0 maps
CacheKaleido ban
40%50%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Nuke
2. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickJust Swing take Inferno
5. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
6. BanKaleido remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
Kaleido 37%Just Swing 63%
The model gave 63% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Kaleido 40%Just Swing 60%
The model gave 60% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 54%
Series resultJust Swing 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2