?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
52%36%
Kaleido · 17 mapsedge Kaleido +16%Just Swing · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
71%50%
Kaleido · 13 mapsedge Kaleido +21%Just Swing · 10 maps
InfernoKaleido ban
42%40%
Kaleido · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Just Swing · 6 maps
CacheKaleido ban
25%69%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Just Swing +44%Just Swing · 9 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Kaleido · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 0 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
57%63%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Just Swing +6%Just Swing · 4 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
33%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickJust Swing take Nuke
5. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
6. BanKaleido remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Kaleido 68%Just Swing 32%
The model gave 68% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
Kaleido 69%Just Swing 31%
The model gave 69% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Kaleido 52%Just Swing 48%
The model gave 52% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 53%
Series resultJust Swing 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3