5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 0:3series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
67%65%
Kaleido · 11 mapsnearly even +2%Rare Atom · 19 maps
AncientKaleido pick
58%54%
Kaleido · 15 mapsnearly even +4%Rare Atom · 9 maps
InfernoRare Atom pick
42%60%
Kaleido · 8 mapsedge Rare Atom +18%Rare Atom · 11 maps
CacheKaleido ban
25%73%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +48%Rare Atom · 11 maps
MirageKaleido pick
44%50%
Kaleido · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +6%Rare Atom · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
33%63%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +30%Rare Atom · 4 maps
DefaultRare Atom ban
60%33%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge Kaleido +27%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanRare Atom remove Default
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickRare Atom take Dust2
5. PickKaleido take Mirage
6. PickRare Atom take Inferno
DeciderAnubis (33% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:19
Kaleido 49%Rare Atom 51%
The model gave 51% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Kaleido 57%Rare Atom 43%
The model gave 57% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Kaleido 42%Rare Atom 58%
The model gave 58% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 74%
Series resultRare Atom 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3