ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKeyd Stars pick
50%48%
Keyd Stars · 20 mapsnearly even +2%ALKA · 19 maps
Dust2ALKA pick
43%64%
Keyd Stars · 10 mapsedge ALKA +21%ALKA · 24 maps
MirageALKA ban
52%53%
Keyd Stars · 17 mapsnearly even -1%ALKA · 11 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
36%59%
Keyd Stars · 7 mapsedge ALKA +23%ALKA · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%46%
Keyd Stars · 8 mapsedge ALKA +13%ALKA · 9 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
40%45%
Keyd Stars · 1 mapedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
AnubisALKA ban
56%50%
Keyd Stars · 5 mapsedge Keyd Stars +6%ALKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Mirage
6. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (33% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Keyd Stars 27%ALKA 73%
The model gave 73% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Keyd Stars 55%ALKA 45%
The model gave 55% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 50%
Series resultALKA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2