ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Stars#117 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Isurus#98 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIsurus ban
53%50%
Keyd Stars · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Isurus · 8 maps
AncientKeyd Stars pick
55%25%
Keyd Stars · 16 mapsedge Keyd Stars +30%Isurus · 4 maps
Dust2Isurus pick
40%64%
Keyd Stars · 6 mapsedge Isurus +24%Isurus · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%42%
Keyd Stars · 8 mapsedge Isurus +9%Isurus · 8 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
38%54%
Keyd Stars · 4 mapsedge Isurus +16%Isurus · 9 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
40%60%
Keyd Stars · 1 mapedge Isurus +20%Isurus · 6 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
67%50%
Keyd Stars · 5 mapsedge Keyd Stars +17%Isurus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
2. BanIsurus remove Anubis
3. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Mirage
6. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (33% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Keyd Stars 81%Isurus 19%
The model gave 81% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Keyd Stars 31%Isurus 69%
The model gave 69% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Keyd Stars 27%Isurus 73%
The model gave 73% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 52%
Series resultIsurus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3