Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Keyd Stars pick
56%65%
Keyd Stars · 14 mapsedge Yawara +9%Yawara · 13 maps
MirageYawara pick
44%67%
Keyd Stars · 5 mapsedge Yawara +23%Yawara · 8 maps
AncientKeyd Stars ban
50%40%
Keyd Stars · 6 mapsedge Keyd Stars +10%Yawara · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%50%
Keyd Stars · 3 mapsedge Keyd Stars +7%Yawara · 4 maps
NukeYawara ban
45%50%
Keyd Stars · 7 mapsedge Yawara +5%Yawara · 0 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
50%50%
Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 6 maps
OverpassYawara ban
50%67%
Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge Yawara +17%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickKeyd Stars take Dust2
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Overpass
6. BanKeyd Stars remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
Keyd Stars 63%Yawara 37%
The model gave 63% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Keyd Stars 54%Yawara 46%
The model gave 54% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 53%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2