CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
KODEX#244 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LAG pick
50%63%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 12 maps
InfernoKODEX ban
50%50%
KODEX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 10 maps
MirageLAG ban
50%43%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge KODEX +7%LAG · 10 maps
NukeKODEX ban
40%62%
KODEX · 1 mapedge LAG +22%LAG · 9 maps
AncientLAG ban
33%60%
KODEX · 2 mapsedge LAG +27%LAG · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%67%
KODEX · 1 mapedge LAG +27%LAG · 5 maps
DefaultKODEX pick
60%60%
KODEX · 1 mapnearly even +0%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKODEX remove Inferno
2. BanLAG remove Mirage
3. PickKODEX take Default
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Ancient
6. BanKODEX remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (40% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
KODEX 27%LAG 73%
The model gave 73% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
KODEX 27%LAG 73%
The model gave 73% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 70%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2