Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassKOLESIE pick
60%50%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%50%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge DragonClaw +6%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Dust2DragonClaw pick
43%50%
KOLESIE · 3 mapsedge DragonClaw +7%DragonClaw · 0 maps
MirageDragonClaw ban
57%50%
KOLESIE · 3 mapsedge KOLESIE +7%DragonClaw · 0 maps
NukeKOLESIE ban
57%50%
KOLESIE · 3 mapsedge KOLESIE +7%DragonClaw · 0 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DragonClaw · 0 maps
DefaultDragonClaw ban
60%50%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +10%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
2. BanDragonClaw remove Default
3. PickKOLESIE take Overpass
4. PickDragonClaw take Dust2
5. BanDragonClaw remove Mirage
6. BanKOLESIE remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
KOLESIE 47%DragonClaw 53%
The model gave 53% on DragonClaw — the map was taken by DragonClaw.
Overpassprediction missed5:13
KOLESIE 63%DragonClaw 37%
The model gave 63% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by DragonClaw.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 63%
Series resultDragonClaw 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2