Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
40%72%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge GenOne +32%GenOne · 21 map
Nukepossible decider
60%59%
KOLESIE · 1 mapnearly even +1%GenOne · 18 maps
AncientGenOne ban
29%38%
KOLESIE · 3 mapsedge GenOne +9%GenOne · 12 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
50%42%
KOLESIE · 4 mapsedge KOLESIE +8%GenOne · 8 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
50%60%
KOLESIE · 2 mapsedge GenOne +10%GenOne · 6 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%64%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge GenOne +14%GenOne · 7 maps
DefaultKOLESIE pick
60%33%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +27%GenOne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Overpass
3. PickKOLESIE take Default
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Ancient
6. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (60% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
KOLESIE 19%GenOne 81%
The model gave 81% on GenOne — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
KOLESIE 43%GenOne 57%
The model gave 57% on GenOne — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 53%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2