NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RUSTEC pick
30%38%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge RUSTEC +8%RUSTEC · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%38%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsedge KOLESIE +12%RUSTEC · 4 maps
MirageKOLESIE ban
60%63%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsnearly even -3%RUSTEC · 4 maps
NukeKOLESIE pick
60%50%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%RUSTEC · 4 maps
AncientRUSTEC ban
55%50%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge KOLESIE +5%RUSTEC · 0 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
44%40%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsnearly even +4%RUSTEC · 1 map
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%71%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge RUSTEC +21%RUSTEC · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. PickRUSTEC take Dust2
5. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
6. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
KOLESIE 44%RUSTEC 56%
The model gave 56% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
KOLESIE 63%RUSTEC 37%
The model gave 63% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 64%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2