Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · win 13:7series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 13:7
HAVENs#331 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHAVENs ban
64%50%
KUUSAMO · 10 mapsedge KUUSAMO +14%HAVENs · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%50%
KUUSAMO · 5 mapsedge HAVENs +6%HAVENs · 0 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
29%40%
KUUSAMO · 3 mapsedge HAVENs +11%HAVENs · 1 map
CacheHAVENs ban
50%50%
KUUSAMO · 4 mapsnearly even +0%HAVENs · 0 maps
Dust2KUUSAMO ban
38%50%
KUUSAMO · 4 mapsedge HAVENs +12%HAVENs · 0 maps
InfernoKUUSAMO ban
43%50%
KUUSAMO · 3 mapsedge HAVENs +7%HAVENs · 0 maps
DefaultHAVENs ban
60%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge KUUSAMO +10%HAVENs · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Dust2
2. BanHAVENs remove Nuke
3. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
4. BanHAVENs remove Cache
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Inferno
6. BanHAVENs remove Default
DeciderMirage (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
KUUSAMO 44%HAVENs 56%
The model gave 56% on HAVENs — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Model check result
Model favoriteKUUSAMO · 64%
Series resultKUUSAMO 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1