ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#186 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LPH#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeKUUSAMO pick
50%50%
KUUSAMO · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 6 maps
AncientLPH pick
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge LPH +10%LPH · 8 maps
Dust2KUUSAMO ban
33%60%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsedge LPH +27%LPH · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%63%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge LPH +23%LPH · 4 maps
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
50%50%
KUUSAMO · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 4 maps
CacheLPH ban
50%40%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsedge KUUSAMO +10%LPH · 1 map
MirageLPH ban
50%50%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. PickKUUSAMO take Nuke
4. PickLPH take Ancient
5. BanLPH remove Cache
6. BanKUUSAMO remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (40% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
KUUSAMO 63%LPH 37%
The model gave 63% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
KUUSAMO 26%LPH 74%
The model gave 74% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
KUUSAMO 25%LPH 75%
The model gave 75% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 55%
Series resultLPH 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3