Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 13:16series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 13:16
SINQU#217 in the world · win 16:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINQU ban
50%50%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU · 0 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 0 maps
InfernoKUUSAMO ban
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
2. BanSINQU remove Mirage
3. BanKUUSAMO remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
KUUSAMO 40%SINQU 60%
The model gave 60% on SINQU — the map was taken by SINQU.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 59%
Series resultSINQU 13:16
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1