ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
56%68%
LAG · 14 mapsedge Marsborne +12%Marsborne · 15 maps
AncientLAG ban
67%65%
LAG · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Marsborne · 16 maps
Dust2LAG pick
65%62%
LAG · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Marsborne · 9 maps
MirageLAG ban
47%62%
LAG · 13 mapsedge Marsborne +15%Marsborne · 9 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
67%50%
LAG · 11 mapsedge LAG +17%Marsborne · 8 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
67%73%
LAG · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Marsborne · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%63%
LAG · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Marsborne · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Mirage
2. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickMarsborne take Inferno
5. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
6. BanLAG remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
LAG 40%Marsborne 60%
The model gave 60% on Marsborne — the map was taken by LAG.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
LAG 56%Marsborne 44%
The model gave 56% on LAG — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
LAG 37%Marsborne 63%
The model gave 63% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 68%
Series resultMarsborne 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3