ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Olympus#190 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOlympus pick
30%50%
LAG · 6 mapsedge Olympus +20%Olympus · 0 maps
NukeOlympus ban
78%50%
LAG · 5 mapsedge LAG +28%Olympus · 0 maps
MirageOlympus ban
57%50%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +7%Olympus · 0 maps
AncientLAG ban
33%50%
LAG · 2 mapsedge Olympus +17%Olympus · 0 maps
Dust2LAG pick
67%50%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +17%Olympus · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
40%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge Olympus +10%Olympus · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge Olympus +10%Olympus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanOlympus remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickOlympus take Inferno
5. BanOlympus remove Mirage
6. BanLAG remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
LAG 31%Olympus 69%
The model gave 69% on Olympus — the map was taken by Olympus.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
LAG 80%Olympus 20%
The model gave 80% on LAG — the map was taken by Olympus.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 74%
Series resultOlympus 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2