Circuit X BLAST Open Porto 2026 North America Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
57%55%
LAG · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
29%30%
LAG · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Overtake Sector · 6 maps
InfernoLAG pick
30%29%
LAG · 6 mapsnearly even +1%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%60%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +7%Overtake Sector · 6 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
70%50%
LAG · 6 mapsedge LAG +20%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
40%67%
LAG · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +27%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
OverpassLAG ban
50%50%
LAG · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Inferno
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanLAG remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
LAG 50%Overtake Sector 50%
The model gave 50% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
LAG 55%Overtake Sector 45%
The model gave 55% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 58%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2