NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Overtake Sector#133 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
56%59%
LAG · 5 mapsnearly even -3%Overtake Sector · 13 maps
InfernoLAG ban
45%46%
LAG · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%46%
LAG · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
Dust2LAG pick
55%50%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +5%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
55%50%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +5%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
71%57%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +14%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
CacheLAG ban
50%71%
LAG · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +21%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Cache
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanLAG remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
LAG 44%Overtake Sector 56%
The model gave 56% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
LAG 52%Overtake Sector 48%
The model gave 52% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
LAG 55%Overtake Sector 45%
The model gave 55% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 69%
Series resultLAG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3