ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
43%73%
LAG · 10 mapsedge Overtake Sector +30%Overtake Sector · 18 maps
InfernoLAG ban
53%56%
LAG · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Overtake Sector · 12 maps
Dust2LAG pick
63%46%
LAG · 12 mapsedge LAG +17%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%46%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +18%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
73%50%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +23%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
67%50%
LAG · 11 mapsedge LAG +17%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
CacheLAG ban
50%63%
LAG · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Cache
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanLAG remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (64% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
LAG 20%Overtake Sector 80%
The model gave 80% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
LAG 50%Overtake Sector 50%
The model gave 50% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 70%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2