NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
regain#180 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
53%56%
LAG · 15 mapsnearly even -3%regain · 14 maps
MirageLAG ban
41%35%
LAG · 13 mapsedge LAG +6%regain · 13 maps
Dust2LAG pick
63%43%
LAG · 15 mapsedge LAG +20%regain · 10 maps
AncientLAG ban
75%57%
LAG · 8 mapsedge LAG +18%regain · 10 maps
Anubisregain ban
69%50%
LAG · 9 mapsedge LAG +19%regain · 2 maps
Nukeregain ban
67%50%
LAG · 11 mapsedge LAG +17%regain · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%56%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +11%regain · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Mirage
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. Pickregain take Inferno
5. Banregain remove Anubis
6. BanLAG remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
LAG 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
LAG 50%regain 50%
The model gave 50% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 80%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2