StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
50%62%
LAG · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +12%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
NukeLAG pick
67%63%
LAG · 5 mapsnearly even +4%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%44%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +23%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
MirageLAG ban
50%57%
LAG · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
AnubisLAG ban
40%75%
LAG · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +35%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
29%60%
LAG · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +31%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
50%33%
LAG · 0 mapsedge LAG +17%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickLAG take Nuke
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
6. BanLAG remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (67% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
LAG 36%SportsBetExpert 64%
The model gave 64% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
LAG 74%SportsBetExpert 26%
The model gave 74% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
LAG 55%SportsBetExpert 45%
The model gave 55% on LAG — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 69%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3