ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
56%69%
LAG · 12 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +13%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%75%
LAG · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +8%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
Dust2LAG pick
63%50%
LAG · 12 mapsedge LAG +13%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
47%87%
LAG · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +40%SportsBetExpert · 11 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert ban
73%64%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +9%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
64%50%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +14%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
CacheLAG ban
50%45%
LAG · 0 mapsedge LAG +5%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Cache
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Anubis
6. BanLAG remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (67% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct17:19
LAG 40%SportsBetExpert 60%
The model gave 60% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
LAG 11%SportsBetExpert 89%
The model gave 89% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 68%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2