ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 1:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LAG pick
63%43%
LAG · 12 mapsedge LAG +20%Babag · 3 maps
InfernoBabag ban
53%33%
LAG · 11 mapsedge LAG +20%Babag · 2 maps
NukeBabag ban
67%50%
LAG · 11 mapsedge LAG +17%Babag · 0 maps
MirageLAG ban
43%50%
LAG · 10 mapsedge Babag +7%Babag · 0 maps
AncientLAG ban
64%40%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +24%Babag · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
73%40%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +33%Babag · 1 map
DefaultBabag pick
60%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge LAG +10%Babag · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Mirage
2. BanBabag remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickBabag take Default
5. BanBabag remove Inferno
6. BanLAG remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (73% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
LAG 60%Babag 40%
The model gave 60% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 71%
Series resultLAG 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1