ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Villainous#198 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoVillainous pick
30%50%
LAG · 6 mapsedge Villainous +20%Villainous · 0 maps
NukeVillainous ban
78%50%
LAG · 5 mapsedge LAG +28%Villainous · 0 maps
MirageVillainous ban
57%50%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +7%Villainous · 0 maps
AncientLAG ban
33%50%
LAG · 2 mapsedge Villainous +17%Villainous · 0 maps
Dust2LAG pick
67%50%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +17%Villainous · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
40%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanVillainous remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickVillainous take Inferno
5. BanVillainous remove Mirage
6. BanLAG remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
LAG 50%Villainous 50%
The model gave 50% on LAG — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 64%
Series resultVillainous 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1