ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zomblers#197 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
54%55%
LAG · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Zomblers · 7 maps
Dust2LAG pick
60%50%
LAG · 11 mapsedge LAG +10%Zomblers · 4 maps
NukeZomblers ban
62%43%
LAG · 9 mapsedge LAG +19%Zomblers · 3 maps
MirageLAG ban
38%67%
LAG · 9 mapsedge Zomblers +29%Zomblers · 2 maps
AncientLAG ban
60%67%
LAG · 6 mapsedge Zomblers +7%Zomblers · 2 maps
AnubisZomblers ban
67%40%
LAG · 5 mapsedge LAG +27%Zomblers · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
LAG · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Mirage
2. BanZomblers remove Anubis
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
5. BanZomblers remove Nuke
6. BanLAG remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
LAG 22%Zomblers 78%
The model gave 78% on Zomblers — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
LAG 52%Zomblers 48%
The model gave 52% on LAG — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
LAG 60%Zomblers 40%
The model gave 60% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 67%
Series resultLAG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3