NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
61%50%
Lavked · 34 mapsedge Lavked +11%Butterfly · 2 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
40%60%
Lavked · 21 mapedge Butterfly +20%Butterfly · 1 map
NukeButterfly pick
55%67%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Butterfly +12%Butterfly · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
75%67%
Lavked · 12 mapsedge Lavked +8%Butterfly · 2 maps
InfernoLavked ban
31%33%
Lavked · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Butterfly · 2 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
57%50%
Lavked · 10 mapsedge Lavked +7%Butterfly · 0 maps
OverpassButterfly ban
50%50%
Lavked · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Butterfly · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickButterfly take Nuke
5. BanButterfly remove Overpass
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (75% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Lavked 54%Butterfly 46%
The model gave 54% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Lavked 63%Butterfly 37%
The model gave 63% on Lavked — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Lavked 38%Butterfly 62%
The model gave 63% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 54%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3