BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity pick
67%60%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +7%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
NukeLavked pick
71%50%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Lavked +21%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
60%60%
Lavked · 1 mapnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
67%50%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Overpass
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Nuke
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Mirage
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Lavked 47%ex-Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Lavked 74%ex-Zero Tenacity 26%
The model gave 74% on Lavked — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 54%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2