NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFortress ban
37%20%
Lavked · 23 mapsedge Lavked +17%Fortress · 6 maps
Dust2Lavked pick
54%40%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge Lavked +14%Fortress · 1 map
AncientFortress pick
38%36%
Lavked · 17 mapsnearly even +2%Fortress · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
45%30%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Lavked +15%Fortress · 6 maps
AnubisLavked ban
53%36%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +17%Fortress · 7 maps
InfernoFortress ban
36%20%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge Lavked +16%Fortress · 6 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%21%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +19%Fortress · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickLavked take Dust2
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Inferno
6. BanLavked remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (45% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Lavked 49%Fortress 51%
The model gave 51% on Fortress — the map was taken by Lavked.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Lavked 73%Fortress 27%
The model gave 73% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 65%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2