NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
39%25%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge Lavked +14%Fortress · 8 maps
AncientFortress pick
41%33%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Lavked +8%Fortress · 8 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
52%40%
Lavked · 25 mapsedge Lavked +12%Fortress · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
43%30%
Lavked · 19 mapsedge Lavked +13%Fortress · 6 maps
AnubisLavked ban
50%36%
Lavked · 12 mapsedge Lavked +14%Fortress · 7 maps
InfernoFortress ban
33%20%
Lavked · 8 mapsedge Lavked +13%Fortress · 6 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%27%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +13%Fortress · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanFortress remove Dust2
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Inferno
6. BanLavked remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (43% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Lavked 55%Fortress 45%
The model gave 55% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Lavked 69%Fortress 31%
The model gave 69% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 73%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2