NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLavked pick
56%67%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge GenOne +11%GenOne · 2 maps
Dust2GenOne pick
57%57%
Lavked · 3 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 3 maps
InfernoLavked ban
57%67%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge GenOne +10%GenOne · 2 maps
MirageGenOne ban
67%50%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Lavked +17%GenOne · 0 maps
AncientLavked ban
67%50%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +17%GenOne · 2 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
60%40%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +20%GenOne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickLavked take Nuke
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. BanLavked remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Lavked 47%GenOne 53%
The model gave 53% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Lavked 41%GenOne 59%
The model gave 59% on GenOne — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Lavked 67%GenOne 33%
The model gave 67% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 59%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3