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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavked#140 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lavked ban
44%63%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +19%INOX Division · 15 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
43%50%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge INOX Division +7%INOX Division · 0 maps
NukeINOX Division pick
38%74%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge INOX Division +36%INOX Division · 15 maps
AncientINOX Division ban
54%53%
Lavked · 9 mapsnearly even +1%INOX Division · 13 maps
InfernoLavked ban
60%63%
Lavked · 1 mapnearly even -3%INOX Division · 20 maps
AnubisLavked pick
60%46%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +14%INOX Division · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%44%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +6%INOX Division · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickLavked take Anubis
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Lavked 54%INOX Division 46%
The model gave 54% on Lavked — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Nukeprediction missed16:12
Lavked 17%INOX Division 83%
The model gave 83% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Lavked 32%INOX Division 68%
The model gave 68% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 67%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3