Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
54%46%
Lavked · 37 mapsedge Lavked +8%megoshort · 9 maps
Dust2megoshort pick
40%60%
Lavked · 21 mapedge megoshort +20%megoshort · 6 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
Lavked · 18 mapsnearly even +0%megoshort · 0 maps
Ancientmegoshort ban
65%38%
Lavked · 13 mapsedge Lavked +27%megoshort · 4 maps
AnubisLavked ban
53%60%
Lavked · 13 mapsedge megoshort +7%megoshort · 1 map
InfernoLavked ban
18%38%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge megoshort +20%megoshort · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%33%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +17%megoshort · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. Pickmegoshort take Dust2
5. Banmegoshort remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct14:16
Lavked 47%megoshort 53%
The model gave 53% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Lavked 60%megoshort 40%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 62%
Series resultmegoshort 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2