WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNemiga ban
58%54%
Lavked · 34 mapsnearly even +4%Nemiga · 9 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
40%46%
Lavked · 21 mapedge Nemiga +6%Nemiga · 9 maps
NukeLavked pick
58%56%
Lavked · 20 mapsnearly even +2%Nemiga · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
73%69%
Lavked · 11 mapsnearly even +4%Nemiga · 9 maps
AnubisLavked ban
60%60%
Lavked · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 6 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
50%67%
Lavked · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 8 maps
InfernoLavked ban
25%50%
Lavked · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +25%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanNemiga remove Mirage
3. PickLavked take Nuke
4. PickNemiga take Overpass
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanLavked remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (73% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Lavked 57%Nemiga 43%
The model gave 57% on Lavked — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Lavked 41%Nemiga 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 67%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2