ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RBLS#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoRBLS pick
67%67%
Lavked · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 2 maps
NukeLavked pick
67%50%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +17%RBLS · 2 maps
MirageRBLS ban
67%50%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +17%RBLS · 0 maps
AncientLavked ban
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%RBLS · 0 maps
Dust2RBLS ban
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%RBLS · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%40%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%RBLS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Overpass
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickLavked take Nuke
4. PickRBLS take Inferno
5. BanRBLS remove Dust2
6. BanLavked remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Lavked 69%RBLS 31%
The model gave 69% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
Lavked 57%RBLS 43%
The model gave 57% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 50%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2