European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
35%33%
Lavked · 19 mapsnearly even +2%Saint Sinners · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Lavked · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Saint Sinners · 4 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
58%60%
Lavked · 15 mapsnearly even -2%Saint Sinners · 1 map
AncientSaint Sinners ban
39%40%
Lavked · 14 mapsnearly even -1%Saint Sinners · 1 map
DefaultLavked ban
38%43%
Lavked · 4 mapsedge Saint Sinners +5%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
InfernoLavked ban
33%40%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Saint Sinners +7%Saint Sinners · 1 map
AnubisSaint Sinners ban
56%50%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Lavked +6%Saint Sinners · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Anubis
6. BanLavked remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Lavked 45%Saint Sinners 55%
The model gave 55% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Lavked.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Lavked 58%Saint Sinners 42%
The model gave 58% on Lavked — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Lavked 49%Saint Sinners 51%
The model gave 51% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 61%
Series resultSaint Sinners 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3