NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNiTY#126 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLavked ban
50%40%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%UNiTY · 1 map
Dust2UNiTY ban
50%40%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%UNiTY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Ancient
2. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Lavked 47%UNiTY 53%
The model gave 53% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Lavked 53%UNiTY 47%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Lavked 60%UNiTY 40%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 58%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3