NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY ban
67%36%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Lavked +31%UNiTY · 7 maps
MirageLavked pick
58%50%
Lavked · 8 mapsedge Lavked +8%UNiTY · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%44%
Lavked · 5 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 5 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
55%50%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge Lavked +5%UNiTY · 0 maps
InfernoLavked ban
57%60%
Lavked · 3 mapsnearly even -3%UNiTY · 1 map
AnubisLavked ban
50%43%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lavked +7%UNiTY · 3 maps
DefaultUNiTY pick
50%60%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge UNiTY +10%UNiTY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Anubis
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickUNiTY take Default
5. BanUNiTY remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (44% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Lavked 44%UNiTY 56%
The model gave 56% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Lavked 61%UNiTY 39%
The model gave 61% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Lavked 50%UNiTY 50%
The model gave 50% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 65%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3