Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLazer Cats pick
63%46%
Lazer Cats · 4 mapsedge Lazer Cats +17%TNC · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Lazer Cats · 2 mapsnearly even +0%TNC · 8 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
50%64%
Lazer Cats · 0 mapsedge TNC +14%TNC · 10 maps
Dust2Lazer Cats ban
25%33%
Lazer Cats · 4 mapsedge TNC +8%TNC · 5 maps
AnubisTNC pick
50%60%
Lazer Cats · 2 mapsedge TNC +10%TNC · 6 maps
OverpassTNC ban
50%38%
Lazer Cats · 0 mapsedge Lazer Cats +12%TNC · 4 maps
InfernoTNC ban
57%50%
Lazer Cats · 3 mapsedge Lazer Cats +7%TNC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
2. BanTNC remove Inferno
3. PickLazer Cats take Ancient
4. PickTNC take Anubis
5. BanTNC remove Overpass
6. BanLazer Cats remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
Lazer Cats 69%TNC 31%
The model gave 69% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by TNC.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Lazer Cats 33%TNC 67%
The model gave 67% on TNC — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Lazer Cats 50%TNC 50%
The model gave 50% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC · 52%
Series resultTNC 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3