FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#8 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
magic#18 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
50%63%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge magic +13%magic · 12 maps
Dust2magic ban
50%33%
Legacy · 10 mapsedge Legacy +17%magic · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%56%
Legacy · 5 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 5 maps
CacheLegacy ban
50%70%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge magic +20%magic · 6 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
70%60%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge Legacy +10%magic · 1 map
AnubisLegacy ban
50%50%
Legacy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 4 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
Legacy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Ancient
5. Banmagic remove Dust2
6. BanLegacy remove Cache
DeciderMirage (56% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Legacy 35%magic 65%
The model gave 65% on magic — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Legacy 69%magic 31%
The model gave 69% on Legacy — the map was taken by magic.
Mirageprediction correct16:14
Legacy 50%magic 50%
The model gave 50% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 67%
Series resultLegacy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3