IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Legacy#7 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 8:13
MIBR#12 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
80%57%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge Legacy +23%MIBR · 3 maps
AncientLegacy ban
40%50%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 2 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
63%43%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Legacy +20%MIBR · 3 maps
NukeLegacy ban
56%60%
Legacy · 5 mapsnearly even -4%MIBR · 1 map
Dust2MIBR ban
67%50%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +17%MIBR · 0 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
60%67%
Legacy · 1 mapedge MIBR +7%MIBR · 2 maps
OverpassMIBR ban
60%40%
Legacy · 1 mapedge Legacy +20%MIBR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. BanLegacy remove Ancient
4. BanMIBR remove Overpass
5. BanLegacy remove Nuke
6. BanMIBR remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (80% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Legacy 45%MIBR 55%
The model gave 55% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 77%
Series resultMIBR 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1