Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#7 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
64%65%
Legacy · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Spirit · 13 maps
MirageLegacy pick
67%69%
Legacy · 5 mapsnearly even -2%Spirit · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
38%50%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Spirit +12%Spirit · 4 maps
AncientLegacy ban
50%71%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Spirit +21%Spirit · 3 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%73%
Legacy · 0 mapsedge Spirit +23%Spirit · 7 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
73%50%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge Legacy +23%Spirit · 0 maps
CacheSpirit ban
50%43%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge Legacy +7%Spirit · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickLegacy take Mirage
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Cache
6. BanLegacy remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Legacy 46%Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Legacy 31%Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 80%
Series resultSpirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2