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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
LEGAMloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheLEGAM ban
50%71%
LEGAM · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +21%Rare Atom · 3 maps
AncientLEGAM pick
50%50%
LEGAM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Dust2Rare Atom ban
50%50%
LEGAM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 2 maps
InfernoRare Atom pick
50%50%
LEGAM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 2 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
50%60%
LEGAM · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLEGAM remove Cache
2. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
3. PickLEGAM take Ancient
4. PickRare Atom take Inferno
5. BanRare Atom remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
LEGAM 53%Rare Atom 47%
The model gave 53% on LEGAM — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
LEGAM 26%Rare Atom 74%
The model gave 74% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 70%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2