ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legion#206 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nas#189 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Legion pick
31%46%
Legion · 9 mapsedge Nas +15%Nas · 9 maps
NukeNas pick
50%55%
Legion · 2 mapsedge Nas +5%Nas · 7 maps
MirageNas ban
71%44%
Legion · 3 mapsedge Legion +27%Nas · 5 maps
AncientLegion ban
50%55%
Legion · 0 mapsedge Nas +5%Nas · 7 maps
CacheLegion ban
29%40%
Legion · 3 mapsedge Nas +11%Nas · 1 map
AnubisNas ban
43%50%
Legion · 3 mapsedge Nas +7%Nas · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%60%
Legion · 1 mapedge Nas +20%Nas · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegion remove Ancient
2. BanNas remove Mirage
3. PickLegion take Dust2
4. PickNas take Nuke
5. BanNas remove Anubis
6. BanLegion remove Cache
DeciderDefault (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
Legion 37%Nas 63%
The model gave 63% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Legion 42%Nas 58%
The model gave 58% on Nas — the map was taken by Legion.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Legion 76%Nas 24%
The model gave 76% on Legion — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 67%
Series resultNas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3