ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legion#206 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Legion pick
36%64%
Legion · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +28%Rare Atom · 18 maps
InfernoLegion ban
33%60%
Legion · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +27%Rare Atom · 11 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
33%71%
Legion · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +38%Rare Atom · 10 maps
AncientLegion ban
50%54%
Legion · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Rare Atom · 9 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
71%50%
Legion · 3 mapsedge Legion +21%Rare Atom · 6 maps
AnubisRare Atom ban
50%63%
Legion · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%Rare Atom · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%33%
Legion · 1 mapedge Legion +7%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegion remove Ancient
2. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
3. PickLegion take Dust2
4. PickRare Atom take Cache
5. BanRare Atom remove Anubis
6. BanLegion remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
Legion 15%Rare Atom 85%
The model gave 85% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Legion 27%Rare Atom 73%
The model gave 73% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 67%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2