ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
67%39%
Leo · 17 mapsedge Leo +28%ex-MANA · 14 maps
Ancientex-MANA pick
57%45%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Leo +12%ex-MANA · 7 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
36%29%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Leo +7%ex-MANA · 3 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
55%33%
Leo · 7 mapsedge Leo +22%ex-MANA · 5 maps
MirageLeo ban
50%67%
Leo · 4 mapsedge ex-MANA +17%ex-MANA · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%33%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +27%ex-MANA · 2 maps
DefaultLeo ban
50%40%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Leo +10%ex-MANA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. Pickex-MANA take Ancient
5. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
6. BanLeo remove Default
DeciderInferno (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Leo 74%ex-MANA 26%
The model gave 74% on Leo — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Leo 61%ex-MANA 39%
The model gave 61% on Leo — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 67%
Series resultex-MANA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2