NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo ban
42%42%
Leo · 22 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 20 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
33%44%
Leo · 8 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%G2 Ares · 23 maps
Ancientpossible decider
42%50%
Leo · 15 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%G2 Ares · 14 maps
InfernoLeo ban
50%60%
Leo · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%G2 Ares · 26 maps
CacheLeo pick
45%29%
Leo · 7 mapsedge Leo +16%G2 Ares · 10 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
86%50%
Leo · 17 mapsedge Leo +36%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
38%50%
Leo · 9 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Inferno
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickLeo take Cache
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanLeo remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Leo 36%G2 Ares 64%
The model gave 64% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Leo.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
Leo 70%G2 Ares 30%
The model gave 70% on Leo — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Leo 42%G2 Ares 58%
The model gave 58% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 63%
Series resultG2 Ares 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3