CCT 2026 Europe Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
57%33%
Leo · 3 mapsedge Leo +24%HAVU · 8 maps
AnubisLeo pick
40%50%
Leo · 6 mapsedge HAVU +10%HAVU · 0 maps
MirageHAVU ban
60%33%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +27%HAVU · 5 maps
NukeHAVU pick
40%50%
Leo · 1 mapedge HAVU +10%HAVU · 4 maps
AncientHAVU ban
29%50%
Leo · 3 mapsedge HAVU +21%HAVU · 0 maps
OverpassLeo ban
50%43%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Leo +7%HAVU · 3 maps
DefaultLeo ban
50%67%
Leo · 0 mapsedge HAVU +17%HAVU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Default
2. BanHAVU remove Ancient
3. PickLeo take Anubis
4. PickHAVU take Nuke
5. BanHAVU remove Mirage
6. BanLeo remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (57% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Leo 75%HAVU 25%
The model gave 75% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Leo 37%HAVU 63%
The model gave 63% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Leo 50%HAVU 50%
The model gave 50% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 60%
Series resultLeo 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3