CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
60%27%
Leo · 6 mapsedge Leo +33%Lilmix · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%38%
Leo · 5 mapsedge Lilmix +5%Lilmix · 9 maps
MirageLilmix ban
60%38%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +22%Lilmix · 12 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
33%50%
Leo · 8 mapsedge Lilmix +17%Lilmix · 0 maps
InfernoLeo ban
60%80%
Leo · 1 mapedge Lilmix +20%Lilmix · 6 maps
OverpassLilmix pick
50%55%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +5%Lilmix · 7 maps
DefaultLeo ban
50%33%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Leo +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Inferno
2. BanLilmix remove Anubis
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. PickLilmix take Overpass
5. BanLilmix remove Mirage
6. BanLeo remove Default
DeciderAncient (33% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Leo 82%Lilmix 18%
The model gave 82% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Leo 69%Lilmix 31%
The model gave 69% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 50%
Series resultLeo 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2