ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
62%50%
Leo · 22 mapsedge Leo +12%Misa · 30 maps
AnubisMisa pick
37%50%
Leo · 15 mapsedge Misa +13%Misa · 16 maps
MirageLeo ban
44%42%
Leo · 5 mapsnearly even +2%Misa · 22 maps
NukeMisa ban
57%47%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Leo +10%Misa · 15 maps
AncientMisa ban
53%50%
Leo · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
Leo · 2 mapsedge Leo +10%Misa · 11 maps
InfernoLeo ban
60%54%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +6%Misa · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanLeo remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Leo 50%Misa 50%
The model gave 50% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Leo 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
Leo 62%Misa 38%
The model gave 62% on Leo — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 53%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3