CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#117 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPARTA#89 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
48%66%
Leo · 21 mapedge SPARTA +18%SPARTA · 40 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
48%46%
Leo · 17 mapsnearly even +2%SPARTA · 20 maps
NukeLeo pick
80%52%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +28%SPARTA · 19 maps
MirageLeo ban
30%56%
Leo · 6 mapsedge SPARTA +26%SPARTA · 21 map
Cachepossible decider
43%50%
Leo · 3 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 12 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
36%43%
Leo · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 3 maps
InfernoLeo ban
50%56%
Leo · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +6%SPARTA · 12 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Inferno
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanLeo remove Mirage
DeciderCache (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Leo 30%SPARTA 70%
The model gave 70% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Leo 81%SPARTA 19%
The model gave 81% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Leo 43%SPARTA 57%
The model gave 57% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 55%
Series resultSPARTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3